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BEGIN { Init() ReadQuotes() CleanUp() Prediction() Report() SendMail() } function Init() { if (ARGC != 1) { print "STOXPRED - daily stock share prediction" print "IN:\n no parameters, nothing on stdin" print "PARAM:\n -v Proxy=MyProxy -v ProxyPort=80" print "OUT:\n commented predictions as email" print "JK 09.10.2000" exit } # Remember ticker symbols from Dow Jones Industrial Index StockCount = split("AA GE JNJ MSFT AXP GM JPM PG BA HD KO \ SBC C HON MCD T CAT HWP MMM UTX DD IBM MO WMT DIS INTC \ MRK XOM EK IP", name); # Remember the current date as the end of the time series day = strftime("%d") month = strftime("%m") year = strftime("%Y") if (Proxy == "") Proxy = "chart.yahoo.com" if (ProxyPort == 0) ProxyPort = 80 YahooData = "/inet/tcp/0/" Proxy "/" ProxyPort } function ReadQuotes() { # Retrieve historical data for each ticker symbol FS = "," for (stock = 1; stock <= StockCount; stock++) { URL = "http://chart.yahoo.com/table.csv?s=" name[stock] \ "&a=" month "&b=" day "&c=" year-1 \ "&d=" month "&e=" day "&f=" year \ "g=d&q=q&y=0&z=" name[stock] "&x=.csv" printf("GET " URL " HTTP/1.0\r\n\r\n") |& YahooData while ((YahooData |& getline) > 0) { if (NF == 6 && $1 ~ /Jan|Feb|Mar|Apr|May|Jun|Jul|Aug|Sep|Oct|Nov|Dec/) { if (stock == 1) days[++daycount] = $1; quote[$1, stock] = $5 } } close(YahooData) } FS = " " } function CleanUp() { # clean up time series; eliminate incomplete data sets for (d = 1; d <= daycount; d++) { for (stock = 1; stock <= StockCount; stock++) if (! ((days[d], stock) in quote)) stock = StockCount + 10 if (stock > StockCount + 1) continue datacount++ for (stock = 1; stock <= StockCount; stock++) data[datacount, stock] = int(0.5 + quote[days[d], stock]) } delete quote delete days } function Prediction() { # Predict each ticker symbol by prolonging yesterday's trend for (stock = 1; stock <= StockCount; stock++) { if (data[1, stock] > data[2, stock]) { predict[stock] = "up" } else if (data[1, stock] < data[2, stock]) { predict[stock] = "down" } else { predict[stock] = "neutral" } if ((data[1, stock] > data[2, stock]) && (data[2, stock] > data[3, stock])) hot[stock] = 1 if ((data[1, stock] < data[2, stock]) && (data[2, stock] < data[3, stock])) avoid[stock] = 1 } # Do a plausibility check: how many predictions proved correct? for (s = 1; s <= StockCount; s++) { for (d = 1; d <= datacount-2; d++) { if (data[d+1, s] > data[d+2, s]) { UpCount++ } else if (data[d+1, s] < data[d+2, s]) { DownCount++ } else { NeutralCount++ } if (((data[d, s] > data[d+1, s]) && (data[d+1, s] > data[d+2, s])) || ((data[d, s] < data[d+1, s]) && (data[d+1, s] < data[d+2, s])) || ((data[d, s] == data[d+1, s]) && (data[d+1, s] == data[d+2, s]))) CorrectCount++ } } } function Report() { # Generate report report = "\nThis is your daily " report = report "stock market report for "strftime("%A, %B %d, %Y")".\n" report = report "Here are the predictions for today:\n\n" for (stock = 1; stock <= StockCount; stock++) report = report "\t" name[stock] "\t" predict[stock] "\n" for (stock in hot) { if (HotCount++ == 0) report = report "\nThe most promising shares for today are these:\n\n" report = report "\t" name[stock] "\t\thttp://biz.yahoo.com/n/" \ tolower(substr(name[stock], 1, 1)) "/" tolower(name[stock]) ".html\n" } for (stock in avoid) { if (AvoidCount++ == 0) report = report "\nThe stock shares to avoid today are these:\n\n" report = report "\t" name[stock] "\t\thttp://biz.yahoo.com/n/" \ tolower(substr(name[stock], 1, 1)) "/" tolower(name[stock]) ".html\n" } report = report "\nThis sums up to " HotCount+0 " winners and " AvoidCount+0 report = report " losers. When using this kind\nof prediction scheme for" report = report " the 12 months which lie behind us,\nwe get " UpCount report = report " 'ups' and " DownCount " 'downs' and " NeutralCount report = report " 'neutrals'. Of all\nthese " UpCount+DownCount+NeutralCount report = report " predictions " CorrectCount " proved correct next day.\n" report = report "A success rate of "\ int(100*CorrectCount/(UpCount+DownCount+NeutralCount)) "%.\n" report = report "Random choice would have produced a 33% success rate.\n" report = report "Disclaimer: Like every other prediction of the stock\n" report = report "market, this report is, of course, complete nonsense.\n" report = report "If you are stupid enough to believe these predictions\n" report = report "you should visit a doctor who can treat your ailment." } function SendMail() { # send report to customers customer["uncle.scrooge@ducktown.gov"] = "Uncle Scrooge" customer["more@utopia.org" ] = "Sir Thomas More" customer["spinoza@denhaag.nl" ] = "Baruch de Spinoza" customer["marx@highgate.uk" ] = "Karl Marx" customer["keynes@the.long.run" ] = "John Maynard Keynes" customer["bierce@devil.hell.org" ] = "Ambrose Bierce" customer["laplace@paris.fr" ] = "Pierre Simon de Laplace" for (c in customer) { MailPipe = "mail -s 'Daily Stock Prediction Newsletter'" c print "Good morning " customer[c] "," | MailPipe print report "\n.\n" | MailPipe close(MailPipe) } }